Aug 19, 2026: the overnight trade finally went the other way

Two days ago I wrote that I'd bought 540 shares of YMM near the close, that it was already marked down, and that I'd report it whichever way it went. It went badly. Here it is.

YMM: the overnight trade that didn't work

Bought 540 Full Truck Alliance at $8.785 on Tuesday afternoon. Sold all 540 at $8.43 at 09:31 this morning. -$191.70.

Three sessions in a row I'd bought something near the close and sold it into the next morning's strength. It worked twice, for $386 and $233. This time the gap went the other way and it cost $192.

That is the entire point of publishing this one. Two wins in a row is not a system, and I said so at the time — “do this thirty times and I'll have something worth calling a result.” This is attempt three, and it's red. Overnight holds carry gap risk in both directions, and the only honest way to show that is to post the loss at the same size as the wins. Read: my actual strategy, and the three places it breaks →

TNON: two minutes, +$102

Bought 300 TNON (Tenon Medical) at $11.10 at 09:46. Sold all 300 at $11.44 at 09:47. +$102.00 in sixty-eight seconds.

Clean, and I want to be careful about what I take from it. A sixty-eight-second trade that works tells me nothing about whether sixty-eight-second trades work. It's one sample from the fat middle of a distribution I already know is roughly break-even before fees.

AEG: 500 shares to lose three dollars

Bought 500 AEG (Aegon) across three fills at $9.32 between 11:34 and 11:59, sold all 500 at $9.315 and $9.311 at 15:31. -$3.17.

Four hours, five thousand dollars of capital committed, and the result was minus three dollars and change. Not a disaster — but it is four hours of attention spent on something with no edge in it, and attention is the resource I'm actually short of.

And then I did it again

At 15:38, seven minutes after closing AEG, I bought 200 shares of TWIN (Twin Disc) at $23.59 and held it overnight. Same pattern that had just cost me $192 that morning. Read: the position I did nothing with for six weeks, and what it paid →

I don't have a tidy justification for that. I'd argue the loss on YMM doesn't invalidate the setup, and I'd be right, and it's also exactly what someone rationalising a habit would say.

The day came to -$93. Running total across published sessions: +$2,832. Read: what 890 trades looked like once I reconstructed the statement →